Summary of ESTAPE Scores


Crustal Stress Method

 

SHORT-TERM METHODS

Years Available

Crustal Stress Method

In the 11 years from 1971 to 1981, when there were more than 100 crustal stress observation stations in China, a total of 175 short-term and imminent earthquake predictions were made. The rate of successful prediction was 33.1% (58 out of 175), the rate of erroneous prediction was 13.7% (24 out of 175), and the false alarm rate was 53.2% (93 out of 175). During the period from 1982 to 1993, short-term and imminent earthquake prediction by crustal stress observation was suspended. In the years from 1994 to 1996, when only about 20 stations remained working, 4 predictions were made with one being successful and three false. In the years from 1997 to 1999, since the Chinese crustal stress network obtained the financial support of UNGP-IPASD, the number of stations increased to more than 40. A total of 15 short-term and imminent earthquake predictions were made. The rate of successful prediction was 6 out of 15, or 40.0%, the rate of erroneous prediction was the same, at 40.0%, and the false alarm rate was 20.0%

Submitted by: Prof. Huang Xiangning, UNGP-IPASD

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1994
1995
1996

1997
1998
1999

 

ESTAPE Score

Classification

>= 60%

Successful Prediction

< 60%

Erroneous or Incorrect Prediction

0%

False Alarm