Crustal Stress Short-Term/Imminent Earthquake Prediction Record (1999)
Series Issue Prediction Actual Earthquake Misfit ESTAPE Score (Accuracy)
Yr-No. Time Time(To) Location Mo Time(T) Location MS Location Name D T D R D M PT PR PM P(%)
(day) (Km)
99-1 1999.5.1 1999.5.8- N40.43° 6 1999.5.15 N39.38° 4.7 Jiashi, Xinjiang 0 154.3 1.5 100 60.1 0 54
5.22 E78.45° -6.4 E77.27°
       
99-2 1999.6.26 1999.6.26-6.30 N40.1° 3.5 1999.7.25 N40.05° 2.5 Shunyi, Beijing 28 16.6 1 61.9 94.9 39.2 68.3
E116.42° E116.6°
99-3 1999.8.6 1999.8.12- N24.0° 5.2 1999.8.20 N23.7° 4.9 Heyuan, Guangdong 3 37.4 0.3 95 88.8 86.1 89.9
8.21 E114.63° E114.6°
99-4 1999.8.19 1999.8.25-  9.3 N34.33° 4.5 1999.8.17 N31.63° 4.7 Mianzhu, Sichuan 14 561.2 0.1 78.5 0 95.8 52.3
E109.1° -5.0 E104.02°
99-5 1999.9.8 1999.9.12-9.21 N40.67° 6 1999.9.12 N40.3° 4.7 Zuoyun, Shanxi 5 244.5 1.5 91.8 44.5 0 45.3
E115.33° -6.4 E112.48°
    1999.9.21 N23.7° 7.6 Nantou, Taiwan 4 1963 1.4 96.6 0 50.6 44.2
   
    E121.1°
99-6 1999.11.15 1999.11.19-12.3 N39.5° 6                     0
E77.5° -6.4
99-7 1999.11.19 1999.11.23-12.4 N23.93° 6.5± 1999.11.26 N23.9° 5 Hualian, Taiwan 2 150.8 1.5 96.6 60.8 0 53.3
E121.12° 0.5 E122.6°
In 1999 the success rate (general evaluation mark is >= 60) of short-imminent earthquake predictions with piezomagnetic crustal stress method is 2/7 = 28.6%, incorrect short-imminent earthquake predictions (general evaluation mark is < 60) is 4/7 = 57.1%, false alarms of short-imminent earthquake predictions (general evaluation mark is 0) is 1/7 = 14.3%.