Crustal Stress Short-Term/Imminent Earthquake Prediction Record (1997)
Series Issue Prediction Actual Earthquake Misfit ESTAPE Score (Accuracy)
Yr-No. Time Time(To) Location Mo Time(T) Location MS Location Name D T D R D M PT PR PM P(%)
(day) (Km)
97-1 1997.3.31 1997.4.1? N39° 31' 6.7 1997.4.11 N39° 42' 6.6 Jiashi, XinJiang 8 20.4 0.1 91.3 95.8 95.4 94.3
4.5 E76° 47' E76° 48'
     
97-2 1997.7.3 1997.7.4?7.10 N40° 03' 4.5   0
E116° 18'
97-3 1997.10.17 1997.10.26? N23° 00' 7.5 1997.11.8 N35° 12' 7.5 Mani, XiZang 9 2100 0 92.4 0 100 57.7
11.2 E101° 48' E87° 18'
97-4 1997.12.3 1997.12.7 N34° 30' 6.7 1997.12.3 N35° 18' 5.3 Mani, XiZang 4 90.8 1.4 93.4 74.4 0 57.8
10 a.m. E86° 48' 20 p.m. E87° 00'
In 1997 the success rate (general evaluation mark is >= 60) of short-imminent earthquake predictions with piezomagnetic crustal stress method is 1/4 = 25.0%, incorrect short-imminent earthquake predictions (general evaluation mark is < 60) is 2/4 = 50.0%, false alarms of short-imminent earthquake predictions (general evaluation mark is 0) is 1/4 = 25.0%.