Crustal Stress Short-Term/Imminent Earthquake Prediction Record (1979)
Series Issue Prediction Actual Earthquake Misfit ESTAPE Score (Accuracy)
Yr-No. Time Time(To) Location Mo Time(T) Location MS Location Name D T D R D M PT PR PM P(%)
(day) (Km)
79-1 1979. 1.19 1979.1.28 N23.75° 6±                     0
E121.0°
79-2 1979. 4. 5 1979.4.6 N39.68° 5-6 1979.5.17 N39.67° 4.9 Luanxian, Hebei              
-6.30 E118.48° E118.68° 5.1 2 17.2 0.4 97 94.7 77 90.1
79-3 1979. 4. 5 1979.4.6 N40.62° 5-6                     0
-6.30 E115.03°                  
79-4 1979. 7. 6 1979.7.11 N22.67° 6±                     0
-7.31 E101.4°                    
79-5 1979. 7. 6 1979.7.11 N32.8° 5.5±                     0
-7.31 E102.58°                    
79-6 1979.10.11 1979.10.12 N23.5° 6.5                     0
-12.12 E101.1°                    
In 1979 the success rate (general evaluation mark is ³ 60) of short-imminent earthquake predictions with piezomagnetic crustal stress method is 1/6=16.7%, incorrect short-imminent earthquake predictions (general evaluation mark is <60) is 0, false alarms of short-imminent earthquake predictions (general evaluation mark is 0 ) is 5/6=83.3%.