Crustal Stress Short-Term/Imminent Earthquake Prediction Record (1978)
Series Issue Prediction Actual Earthquake Misfit ESTAPE Score (Accuracy)
Yr-No. Time Time(To) Location Mo Time(T) Location MS Location Name D T D R D M PT PR PM P(%)
(day) (Km)
78-1 1978. 4. 3 1978.4.5 N23.75° 6± 1978.4.8 N22.5° 5.6 Taiwan 2 141 0.4 96.6 62.9 80.6 78.3
-4.16 E121.0° E120.8°
78-2 1978. 6. 9 1978.6.11 N23.75° 6± 1978.7.23 N22.6° 7.4 Taiwan 36 128 1.3 72 83.9 50.6 70.3
-6.23 E121.0° E121.1°
78-3 1978. 6.28 1978.7.4 N39.37° 6±                     0
-7.20 E117.53°                    
78-4 1978. 8.22 1978.8.29 N31.08° 6±                     0
-9.11 E102.0°                    
78-5 1978. 8.22 1978.8.29 N26.97° 6± 1978.8.31 N27.6° 5.4  Ninglang, Yunnan 4 77.8 0.6 77.7 93.4 68.5 79.6
-9.11 E101.03° E100.7°
78-6 1978.12. 9 1978.12.14 N30.0° 6±                     0
-12.31 E100.38°                    
In 1978 the success rate (general evaluation mark is ³ 60) of short-imminent earthquake predictions with piezomagnetic crustal stress method is 3/6=50%, incorrect short-imminent earthquake predictions (general evaluation mark is <60) is 0, false alarms of short-imminent earthquake predictions (general evaluation mark is 0 ) is 3 / 6=50%.