Crustal Stress Short-Term/Imminent Earthquake Prediction Record (1977)
Series Issue Prediction Actual Earthquake Misfit ESTAPE Score (Accuracy)
Yr-No. Time Time(To) Location Mo Time(T) Location MS Location Name D T D R D M PT PR PM P(%)
(day) (Km)
77-1 1977. 1.25 1977.1.31 N39.68° 6± 1977.1.30 N39.4° 5.5 Tangshan, Hebei 3 46.6 0.5 95 86.2 74.8 85.4
-2.5 E118.48° E118.08°
77-2 1977. 2.24 1977.2.26 N23.75° 6-7 1977.3.19 N16.1° 7.5 Philippine 16 860 1 86.7 0 64.9 45.5
-3.9 E121.0° E122.2°
77-3 1977. 2.24 1977.2.26 N31.4° 6± 1977.2.25 N27.5° 5.2 Yanyuan, Sichuan 7 449 0.8 88.7 0 54.7 43
-3.9 E102.1° E100.9°
77-4 1977. 3.19 1977.3.20 N40.0° ³ 6                     0
-4.10 E115.0°                    
77-5 1977. 3.19 1977.3.20 N39.45° 6± 1977.3.24 N39.78° 5.2 Tangshan, Hebei 7 65.7 0.8 88.7 80.9 54.7 75.4
-4.10 E118.0° E118.63°
77-6 1977. 5.26 1977.6.2 N39.68° 5.5-6 1977.6.10 N39.45° 5.2 Fengnan, Hebei 3 31.1 0.6 95 90.6 68.5 85.3
-6.13 E117.88° E118.08°
77-7 1977. 6.11 1977.6.15 N26.23° >6                     0
-7.31 E100.42°                    
77-8 1977. 6.11 1977.6.15 N23.37° >6                     0
-7.31 E101.03°                    
77-9 1977. 7. 8 1977.7.9 N39.68° 6± 1977.7.10 N39.87° 5.1 Lulong, Hebei              
-7.20 E118.48° E119.03°              
1977.7.15 N39.75° 5 Tangshan, Hebei 3 35 1 95 89.5 39.2 76.1
E118.08°              
77-10 1977. 7. 8 1977.7.9 N39.35° 5±                     0
-7.20 E116.47°                    
In 1977 the success rate (general evaluation mark is ³ 60) of short-imminent earthquake predictions with piezomagnetic crustal stress method is 4 /10=40%, incorrect short-imminent earthquak predictions (general evaluation mark is <60) is 2/10=20%, false alarms of short-imminent earthquake predictions (general evaluation mark is 0 ) is 4 /10=40%.