Crustal Stress Short-Term/Imminent Earthquake Prediction Record (1976)
Series Issue Prediction Actual Earthquake Misfit ESTAPE Score (Accuracy)
Yr-No. Time Time(To) Location Mo Time(T) Location MS Location Name D T D R D M PT PR PM P(%)
(day) (Km)
76-1 1976. 1.29 1976.2.6 N41.03° >6                     0
-3.3 E119.38°
76-2 1976. 1.29 1976.2.6 N38.95° 5.5± 1976.4.6 N39.7° 6.3  Helingeer, Inner Mongolia 47 116.8 0.8 56.3 77.4 63.7 67
-3.3 E112.75° E111.8°
76-3 1976. 2.28 1976.3.1 N29.47° 6.5±                     0
-3.31 E 99.33°
76-4 1976. 2.28 1976.3.1 N32.53° 6.5±                     0
-3.31 E102.88°
76-5 1976. 4.28 1976.5.2 N23.75° 5.5± 1976.5.14 N24.9° 4 Taiwan 7 141.6 1.5 88.7 62.7 0 51.7
-5.12 E121.0° E121.6°
76-6 1976. 5.13 1976.5.21 N31.53° 6-7 1976.5.29 N24.6° 7.5  Longling, Yunnan 3 874.2 1.1 97.4 0 61.3 47.6
-5.31 E102.9° E 98.7° 7.6
76-7 1976. 5.13 1976.5.21 N28.0° 5-6 1976.5.29 N24.6° 7.5 Longling, Yunnan 3 449.2 2.1 97.4 50.3 0 49.3
-5.31 E101.13° E 98.7° 7.6
76-8 1976. 6.19 1976.6.21 N39.5° 5±                     0
-6.30 E118.5°
76-9 1976. 6.19 1976.6.21 N37.87° 5±                     0
-6.30 E114.4°
76-10 1976. 7. 3 1976.7.6 N32.33° 6±                     0
-7.16 E102.8°
76-11 1976. 7. 3 1976.7.6 N24.57° 6± 1976.7.4 N24.3° 6.1 Luxi, Yunnan 7 31.3 0.1 92.3 93.5 95.4 93.7
-7.16 E 98.72° E 98.7°
76-12 1976. 7.14 1976.7.20 N40.3° 5± 1976.7.28 N39.38° 7.8 Tangshan, Hebei 0 397.5 2.8 100 55.1 0 52
-8.5 E114.0° E118.5°
            N40.2° 7.1 Luanxian, Hebei 0 424.5 2.1 100 52.5 0 51
E119.0°
76-13 1976. 7.14 1976.7.20 N39.5° 5± 1976.7.28 N39.38° 7.8  Tangshan, Hebei 0 13 2.8 100 98.3 0 69.3
-8.5 E118.5° E118.5°
            N40.2° 7.1 Luanxian, Hebei 0 88.8 2.1 100 88.7 0 65.5
E119.0°
76-14 1976. 7.24 1976.7.31 N23.75° 6±                     0
-8.13 E121.0°                    
76-15 1976. 8. 2 1976.8.4 N39.68° 6.5± 1976.8.8 N39.55° 5.6 Tangshan, Hebei              
E118.48° E118.28° 5.7            
1976.8.9 N39.72° 5.9 2 30.2 0.6 97 90.9 73 87.4
  E118.83° 5.4              
    5.4              
1976.8.10 N39.72° 5.4              
  E118.83° 5.5              
76-16 1976. 8.20 1976.8.24 N39.32° 6± 1976.8.31 N39.63° 6 Tangshan, Hebei              
-9.2 E118.22° E118.55° 6 3 45.4 0 96.7 90.7 100 95.3
      5.3              
76-17 1976. 8.20 1976.8.24 N39.4° 6± 1976.8.24 N39.62° 5.1 Baodi, Hebei 4 48 0.9 93.4 85.8 47.2 76.5
-9.2 E116.85° E117.33°
76-18 1976. 9. 8 1976.9.11 N39.5° 6± 1976.9.13 N39.72° 5 Tangshan, Hebei              
-9.19 E118.5°   E118.43° 5.2              
    1976.9.14   5              
    1976.9.15   5.2              
    1976.9.19   5              
    1976.9.25   5.6 10 24.8 0.4 84 92.4 80.6 86.4
    1976.9.29   5.5              
76-19 1976. 9.25 1976.10.1 N39.68° 6±                     0
-10.31 E114.72°                    
76-20 1976. 9.25 1976.10.1 N39.92° 6± 1976.11.15 N39.4° 6.9 Ninghe, Hebei 31 96.1 0.9 69.1 81.1 59.3 71
-10.31 E117.0° E117.9°
76-21 1976.11. 1 1976.11.7 N23.75° 6±                     0
-11.19 E121.0°                    
76-22 1976.11.19 1976.11.22 N39.25° 6± 1976.11.28 N39.23° 5.3  Ninghe, Hebei              
-12. 5 E117.57° E117.92° 5.3              
1976.12.2 N39.55° 5.5 Baodi, Hebei 2 33.4 0.5 96.6 89.9 74.8 87.4
E117.55°
76-23 1976.11.25 1976.11.27 N28.7° 6-7 1976.12.13 N27.0° 6.7 Ninglang, Yunnan 9 298.5 0.2 90.2 50.1 90.8 74.3
-12.12 E102.85° E100.5°
76-24 1976.11.25 1976.11.27 N23.1° 6-7                     0
-12.12 E100.08°                    
76-25 1976.11.25 1976.11.27 N29.47° 6-7                     0
-12.12 E 99.43°                    
In 1976 the success rate (general evaluation mark is ³ 60) of short-imminent earthquake predictions with piezomagnetic crustal stress method is 10/25=40%, incorrect short-imminent earthquake predictions (general evaluation mark is <60) is 4/25=16%, false alarms of short-imminent earthquake predictions (general evaluation mark is 0 ) is 11/25=44%.