Crustal Stress Short-Imminent Earthquake Prediction Record (1974)
Series Issue Prediction Actual Earthquake Misfit ESTAPE Score (Accuracy)
Yr-No. Time Time(To) Location Mo Time(T) Location MS Location Name D T D R D M PT PR PM P(%)
(day) (Km)
74-1 1974. 1.10 1974.1.15 N25.82° 6-7 1974.5.11 N28.2° 7.1 Daguan, Yunnan 94 526 0.6 41.2 43.7 79 53.5
-2.28 E99.42° E104.0°
74-2 1974. 1.10 1974.1.15 N30.0° 6-7 1974.5.11 N28.2° 7.1 Daguan, Yunnan 94 468 0.6 41.2 48.7 79 55.5
-2.28 E99.65° E104.0°
74-3 1974. 1.10 1974.1.15 N23.0° 6-7 1974.5.11 N28.2° 7.1 Daguan, Yunnan 94 673 0.6 41.2 32.6 79 49.1
-2.28 E100.57° E104.0°
74-4 1974. 1.10 1974.1.15 N28.18° 6-7 1974.5.11 N28.2° 7.1 Daguan, Yunnan 94 21.3 0.6 41.2 97.2 79 74.9
-2.28 E103.78° E104.0°
74-5 1974. 2.28 1974.3.4 N23.75° 5.5                     0
E121.0°
74-6 1974. 3.16 1974.3.18 N22.6° 5.5-6                     0
-3.26 E118.0°
74-7 1974. 4. 4 1974.4.13 N32.87° 5.5-6                     0
-4.25 E103.9°
74-8 1974. 4. 4 1974.4.13 N25.23° 5.5-6                     0
-4.25 E 99.37°
74-9 1974. 4. 4 1974.4.13 N30.55° 5.5-6                     0
-4.25 E100.73°
74-10 1974. 4.30 1974.5.5 N31.73° 5.5 1974.5.11 N28.2° 7.1 Daguan, Yunnan 0 474 1.6 100 48.1 43.3 62.3
-5.16 E101.25° E104.0°
74-11 1974. 4.30 1974.5.5 N23.0° 5.5 1974.5.11 N28.2° 7.1 Daguan, Yunnan 0 673 1.6 100 32.6 43.4 56.1
-5.16 E100.57° E104.0°
74-12 1974. 5.11 1974.5.14 N23.75° 5.5±                     0
-5.24 E121.0°
74-13 1974. 5.23 1974.5.25 N23.75° 7±                     0
-6.25 E121.0°
74-14 1974. 6. 9 1974.6.15 N27.82° 6± 1974.6.15 N28.2° 5.7 Daguan, Yunnan 15 45.7 0.3 77.2 86.4 83 82.7
-7.15 E103.73° E103.9° 5.2
74-15 1974. 6. 9 1974.6.15 N28.38° 6±                     0
-7.15 E99.67°
74-16 1974. 6. 9 1974.6.15 N31.3° 6± 1974.6.15 N31.7° 5.1 Ganzi, Sichuan 15 62.7 0.9 77.2 81.7 47.2 70
-7.15 E100.57° E100.1°
74-17 1974. 6. 9 1974.6.15 N32.53° 6±                     0
-7.15 E103.75°
74-18 1974. 6.12 1974.6.13 N39.65° 6.5± 1974.8.11 N39.23° 7.3 Kashi, Xinjiang 19 281 0.8 84.4 66.7 72 73.6
-8.31 E76.52° 1974.8.12 E73.83° 5.9
        6.4
74-19 1974. 6.12 1974.6.13 N42.75° 6.5±                     0
-8.31 E83.27°
74-20 1974. 6.17 1974.6.23 N27.32° 6±                     0
-7.13 E100.0°
74-21 1974. 6.17 1974.6.23 N22.67° 6±                     0
-7.13 E100.72°
74-22 1974. 6.17 1974.6.23 N23.72° 6±                     0
-7.13 E102.2°
74-23 1974. 6.17 1974.6.23 N26.78° 6± 1974.7.10 N28.2° 5.4 Daguan, Yunnan 8 211 0.6 87.2 49.7 68.5 66.6
-7.13 E102.58° E104.0°
74-24 1974. 6.22 1974.6.27 N36.55° 5±                     0
-7.13 E114.75°
74-25 1974. 6.22 1974.6.27 N39.97° 5±                     0
-7.13 E119.6°
74-26 1974. 7. 3 1974.7.6 N23.75° 7± 1974.8.9 N24.7° 6.3 Taiwan 26 194 0.7 73.5 64.7 68.2 68.4
-7.22 E121.0° E122.6°
74-27 1974. 7.19 1974.7.28 N33.65° 5.5±                     0
-8.14 E104.38°
74-28 1974. 7.19 1974.7.28 N26.62° 5.5±                     0
-8.14 E100.27°
74-29 1974. 7.19 1974.7.28 N32.47° 5.5±                     0
-8.14 E101.87°
74-30 1974. 8.22 1974.8.29 N37.23° 5.5±                     0
-9.10 E105.92°
74-31 1974. 8.22 1974.8.29 N38.32° 5.5± 1974.9.22 N37.9° 4.7 Menyuan, Qinghai 18 71.1 0.8 73.3 79.5 54.7 70.2
-9.10 E101.92° E101.3°
74-32 1974. 8.28 1974.9.3 N28.53° 5.5±                     0
-9.20 E103.15°
74-33 1974. 8.28 1974.9.3 N26.82° 5.5±                     0
-9.20 E 99.92°
74-34 1974. 8.28 1974.9.3 N30.85° 5.5±                     0
-9.20 E100.1°
74-35 1974. 8.28 1974.9.3 N32.68° 5.5± 1974.9.23 N33.8° 5.6 Ruoergai, Sichuan 11 173 0.1 82.7 56.3 95.8 76.1
-9.20 E103.9° E102.6°
74-36 1974. 9.10 1974.9.13 N23.75° 5.5± 1974.10.11 N22.5° 5.5 Taiwan 25 152 0 65 60.5 100 73.7
-9.20 E121.0° E121.6°
74-37 1974. 9.27 1974.10.5 N37.72° 5±                     0
-10.20 E114.87°
74-38 1974. 9.27 1974.10.5 N39.0° 5±                     0
-10.20 E116.0°
74-39 1974. 9.27 1974.10.5 N39.27° 5.5± 1974.10.3 N39.67° 4 luanxian, Hebei 9 48.8 1.5 85.7 85.5 0 59.9
-10.20 E119.0° E118.77°
74-40 1974.10.14 1974.10.20 N37.42° 5±                     0
-11.10 E114.07°
74-41 1974.10.14 1974.10.20 N39.27° 5±                     0
-11.10 E119.0°
74-42 1974.10.14 1974.10.20 N38.75° 5±                     0
-11.10 E116.22°
74-43 1974.11.21 1974.11.30 N39.5° 5-5.5 1974.12.25 N39.33° 4.1 Ninghe, Hebei 7 123 1.2 88.7 66.8 0 53.3
-12.15 E119.0° E117.58°
74-44 1974.11.12 1974.11.30 N37.42° 5-5.5                     0
-12.15 E114.52°
74-45 1974.11.21 1974.11.30 N38.75° 5-5.5                     0
-12.15 E116.32°
74-46 1974.11.23 1974.12.4 N26.28° 6±                     0
-12.18 E99.68°
74-47 1974.11.23 1974.12.4 N22.72° 6±                     0
-12.18 E101.37°
74-48 1974.11.23 1974.12.4 N31.3° 6±                     0
-12.18 E100.57°
74-49 1974.11.23 1974.12.4 N29.13° 5±                     0
-12.18 E103.63°
74-50 1974.12.26 1974.12.29 N31.47° 5± 1974.12.30 N28.9° 4.9 Mabian, Sichuan 2 376 0.1 96.6 32.2 95.8 70.6
-1975.1.5 E101.25° E103.8°
74-51 1974.12.26 1974.12.29 N29.53° 5±                     0
-1975.1.5 E100.0°
In 1974 the success rate (general evaluation mark is ³ 60) of short-imminent earthquake predictions with piezomagnetic crustal stress method is 11/51=21.6%, incorrect short-imminent earthquake predictions (general evaluation mark is <60) is 6/51=11.8%, false alarms of short-immivent earthquake predictions (general evaluation mark is 0 ) is 34/51=66.7%.