Crustal Stress Short-Imminent Earthquake Prediction Record (1973)
Series Issue Prediction Actual Earthquake Misfit ESTAPE Scores (Accuracy)
Yr-No. Time Time(To) Location Mo Time(T) Location MS Location Name D T D R D M PT PR PM P(%)
(day) (Km)
73-1 1973. 1. 2 1973.1.4 N23.75° 5-5.5                     0
E121.0°
73-2 1973. 1.11 1973.1.15 N28.75° 5-5.5                     0
E121.0°
73-3 1973. 1.23 1973.1.26 N23.75° 6± 1973.2.14 N22.3° 5.5 Taiwan 14 164.1 0.5 78.5 58.1 74.8 69.2
-2.4 E121.0° E121.3°  
73-4 1973. 2.23 1973. 2.28 N23.75° 5.5-6 1973.3.6 N20.6° 5.3 Bashi Strait 3 349.2 0.5 95 33.8 74.8 64.5
-3.6 E121.0° E121.0°  
73-5 1973. 3. 2 1973.3.5 N39.5° 5±                     0
-18 E119.3°
73-6 1973. 3.24 1973.3.27 N39.0° 5±                     0
-4.5 E119.0°
73-7 1973. 4. 7 1973.4.9 N24.0° 5.5± 1973.4.23 N24.2° 5.1 Taiwan 11 72.7 0.4 82.7 77.8 80.6 80.1
-4.15 E120.3° E121.0°
73-8 1973. 5.19 1973.5.23 N23° 45¢ 5.5-6                     0
-6.1 E121° 00¢
73-9 1973. 6.28 1973.6.30 N24° 43¢ 5-5.5 1973.6.29 N28.8° 5 Mabian, Sichuan              
E101° 12¢   E103.5° 5.5   1 508.3 0.2 98 0 91.1 56.7
  1973.6.30 N28.8° 5.2                
    E103.5° 5.3                
73-10 1973. 6.28 1973.6.30 N29° 36¢ 5-5.5 1973.6.29 N28.8° 5 Mabian, Sichuan              
E102° 07¢   E103.5° 5.5   1 161.1 0.2 98 58.7 91.1 80.2
  1973.6.30 N28.8° 5.2                
    E103.5° 5.3                
73-11 1973. 8.18 1972.8.21 N23.75° 6± 1973.8.26 N20.0° 5.3 Taiwan 0 417.5 0.7 100 30.9 61.8 60.9
-8.31 E121.0° E121.2°
73-12 1973. 8.18 1973.8.19 N23.33° 6±                     0
-9.30 E101.38°
73-13 1973. 8.18 1973.8.19 N28.17° 6±                     0
-9.30 E103.77°
73-14 1973. 9.30 1973.10.5 N23.75° 5.5± 1973.10.2 N23.4° 5.5 Taiwan 9 38.9 0 85.7 88.3 100 91
-10.16 E121.0° E121.0°
73-15 1973.10.11 1973.10.12 N23.75° 5.5±                     0
-10.25 E121.0°
73-16 1973.10.11 1973.10.12 N32.2° 5.5± 1973.10.16 N32.1° 4.9  Rangtang, Sichuan              
-10.25 E102.13°   E101.2°   3 88.6 0.6 95 75 68.5 79.1
    1973.10.27 N32.8° 4.7              
      E104.0°                
In 1973 the success rate (general evaluation mark is ³ 60) of short-imminent earthquake predictions with piezomagnetic crustal stress method is 7/16=43.8%, incorrect short-imminent earthquake predictions (general evaluation mark is <60) is 1/16=6.2%, false alarms of short-imminent earthquake predictions (general evaluation mark is 0 ) is 8/16=50%.