Crustal Stress Short-Term/Imminent Earthquake Prediction Record (1972)
Series Issue Prediction Actual Earthquake Misfit ESTAPE Score (Accuracy)
Yr-No. Time Time(To) Location Mo Time(T) Location MS Location Name D T D R D M PT PR PM P(%)
(day) (Km)
72-1 1972. 1.27 1972.1.27 N36.5° 5± 1972.2.4 N37.37° 4.7 Heshun, Shanxi 5 157 0.3 91.8 59.4 86.1 77.1
-2.2 E112.2° E113.6°
72-2 1972. 1.27 1972.1.27 N40.9° 5± 1972.2.4 N37.37° 4.7 Heshun, Shanxi 5 398 0.3 91.8 31.4 86.1 65.9
-2.2 E112.88° E113.6°
72-3 1972. 4.5 1972.4.7 N39.48° 5± 1972.4.14 N40.0° 5 Liaodong Bay 2 289 0 96.6 39 100 74.6
-4.16 E119.28° E122.6° 4
72-4 1972. 4.5 1972.4.7 N36.38° 5± 1972.4.14 N40.0° 5 Liaodong Bay 2 994 0 96.6 0 100 59
-4.16 E112.2° E122.6° 4
72-5 1972. 4.5 1972.4.7 N38.07° 5± 1972.4.14 N40.0° 5 Liaodong Bay 2 617 0 96.6 0 100 59
-4.16 E115.9° E122.6° 4
72-6 1972. 4.21 1972.4.21 N23.75° 6± 1972.4.24 N23.7° 7.3 Taiwan 3 51.2 1.3 97.4 93.4 54.2 82.8
-5.1 E121.0° E121.5°
72-7 1972. 5.10 1972.5.11 N23.5° 6± 1972.5.12 N24.7° 5.9 Taiwan 3 134 0.1 95 64.5 95.8 83
-5.17 E121.67° E121.7°
72-8 1972. 5.20 1972.5.21 N23.75° 6± 1972.5.22 N16.3° 7 Philippines 1 842 1 99.1 0 64.9 49.2
-5.25 E121.58° E123.0°
72-9 1972. 6. 6 1972.6.8 N24.27° 6± 1972.6.8 N21.5° 5.8 Taiwan 2 308 0.2 96.6 37.1 91.1 71.2
-6.12 E119.43° E119.5°
72-10 1972. 6.26 1972.6.27 N23.75° 6± 1972.7.1 N24.77° 5 Taiwan 3 124 1 95 66.6 39.2 66.9
-6.29 E121.0° E120.5°
72-11 1972. 7. 7 1972.7.8 N23.5° 5.5± 1972.7.16 N24.4° 4.5 Taiwan 4 155 1 93.4 59.9 39.2 63.7
-7.16 E121.67° E120.5°
72-12 1972. 8.10 1972.8.12 N23.75° 5-5.5                     0
-8.16 E121.0°
72-13 1972. 9.11 1972.9.13 N29.35° 5± 1972.9.27 N30.2° 5.8 Kangding, Sichuan 7 121 0.8 88.7 67.2 54.7 69.9
-9.27 E102.28° E101.5°
72-14 1972.11.16 1972.11.19 N28.9° 5.5±                     0
-11.27 E102.28°
72-15 1972.11.30 1972.12.5 N23.75° 5.5±                     0
E121.0°
72-16 1972.12.14 1972.12.14 N23.75° 5.5 1972.12.22 N23.7° 5.1 Taiwan 4 61.3 0.4 93.4 82.1 80.6 85
-12.2 E121.0° E120.4°
72-17 1972.12.14 1972.12.14 N29.0° 5.5                     0
-12.2 E102.1°
In 1972 the success rate (general evaluation mark is ³ 60) of short-imminent earthquake predictions with piezomagnetic crustal stress method is 10/17%=58.8%, incorrect short-imminent earthquake predictions (general evaluation mark is <60) is 3/17%=17.6%, false alarms of short-imminent earthquake predictions (general evaluation mark is 0 ) is 4/17%=23.5%.